The Daniel Jones Redemption Tour: Are the 2-0 Colts for Real or a Prime Fade?
Just two weeks into the 2025 NFL season, one of the most compelling storylines has emerged from an unlikely source: Daniel Jones leading the Indianapolis Colts to a perfect 2-0 start. After his unceremonious exit from New York and a brief stint on Minnesota's practice squad, Jones has found new life in Shane Steichen's offense, sparking intense debate about whether this resurgence is sustainable or a mirage waiting to collapse.
The numbers tell a story of early-season excellence that few saw coming. Jones has completed 45 of 63 passes (71.4%) for 588 yards and two touchdowns while adding 28 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns across two games. More importantly, he's committed zero turnovers while orchestrating an offense averaging 31 points and 446 yards per game. The Colts have been betting darlings, covering both games and hitting one over and one under in their totals.
How Indianapolis Is Winning: The Steichen System
Shane Steichen deserves significant credit for Jones' transformation. "Shane Steichen is undoubtedly providing Jones with a fitting game plan and scheme, utilizing lots of pre-snap motion and post-snap play-action," according to Stampede Blue. The Colts' offensive coordinator has crafted a system that maximizes Jones' mobility while minimizing his historical weaknesses.
The designed rushing attempts tell the story of Steichen's strategic approach. Jones is averaging 6.5 rushing attempts per game, with three rushing touchdowns already matching his 2024 total with the Giants. This isn't scrambling out of desperation – it's calculated aggression that keeps defenses honest and provides easy scoring opportunities in the red zone.
The protection has been stellar, allowing Jones to operate from clean pockets while the tempo-based attack keeps defenses off balance. Indianapolis is utilizing quick-hitting routes, pre-snap motion, and play-action to create favorable matchups, resulting in Jones' highest completion percentage since his 2022 playoff run.
| Week | Opponent | Result | DJ Passing | DJ Rushing | Team Yards | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami | W 33-8 | 22/29, 272y, 1TD | 7 att, 26y, 2TD | 418 | 0 |
| 2 | Denver | W 29-28 | 23/34, 316y, 1TD | 6 att, 2y, 1TD | 473 | 0 |
Betting Market Analysis: Sharp Money or Fool's Gold?
The betting markets have been slow to adjust to Indianapolis' hot start. After opening as 1.5-point home favorites against Miami in Week 1, the Colts demolished the Dolphins 33-8. Week 2 saw them as 2.5-point home underdogs to Denver, yet they escaped with a 29-28 victory that sent the over (43.5) sailing.
For Week 3, oddsmakers have installed the Colts as 3-point road favorites at Tennessee with a total of 43.5. This represents a significant market correction, suggesting sportsbooks are beginning to respect Indianapolis' early-season form. However, the relatively low total indicates skepticism about the offense's sustainability.
"Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis offense continue to defy expectations," noted Yahoo Sports in their Week 3 betting preview. The key question for bettors is whether to ride the wave or identify regression spots.
Fantasy Football Implications: Sustainable Production?
Jones is averaging 26.2 fantasy points per game, putting him on pace for low-end QB1 numbers despite minimal passing touchdown production. His rushing touchdown rate appears unsustainable – three scores on 13 attempts represents a 23% touchdown rate that will inevitably regress.
The receiving corps presents interesting dynamics for fantasy managers. Michael Pittman Jr. has emerged as the clear WR1 with 13 targets and 10 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown. "Last week, Pittman Jr. was the WR8 in fantasy, soaking up a 27.6% target share and 30% first-read share from Daniel Jones," according to Fantasy Pros.
Tyler Warren has been the surprise breakout, leading the team with 16 targets and 11 receptions for 155 yards. His 13.4 fantasy points per game average makes him a viable streaming option at tight end, especially given Jones' historical reliance on safety valve targets.
The Regression Case: Warning Signs Ahead
While the early returns are impressive, several factors suggest regression is coming. Jones' 1.0 passing touchdowns per game rate is well below league average, and his rushing touchdown pace is historically unsustainable. The Colts have also benefited from an incredibly favorable turnover margin – their zero giveaways through two games won't continue indefinitely.
The schedule provides another concern. After Tennessee, Indianapolis faces a gauntlet including playoff contenders where Jones' limitations may be exposed. His career 84.1 passer rating and tendency for costly mistakes haven't disappeared overnight.
Expert Analysis: Believe or Fade?
The consensus among analysts remains cautiously optimistic but wary of overreaction. "I don't understand, from a NFL point of view, why the Colts are starting Daniel Jones," said fantasy expert Matthew Berry. "They knew Anthony Richardson was a project when they drafted him."
However, the early results speak for themselves. Jones has found the perfect system fit in Indianapolis, where Steichen's creative play-calling masks his weaknesses while amplifying his strengths.
The Verdict: Cautious Optimism with Regression Expectations
The Daniel Jones redemption tour is real, but it's also fragile. The Colts' 2-0 start reflects genuine schematic improvements and Jones' renewed confidence, but the underlying metrics suggest this pace isn't sustainable. Smart money should view Indianapolis as a solid playoff contender rather than a juggernaut, with Jones providing steady QB2 production in fantasy.
For Week 3 and beyond, the key is identifying when the market overadjusts. The Colts laying three points on the road represents value if you believe in the system, but the low totals suggest oddsmakers expect offensive regression. The truth likely lies somewhere between the early-season euphoria and the skeptics' concerns – Indianapolis is better than expected, but not as dominant as two games suggest.
The redemption tour continues, but the real test begins now as defenses adjust and the schedule toughens. Whether Jones can sustain this level of play will determine if the Colts are legitimate contenders or simply this season's early-season mirage.