The Thanksgiving Turkey: Why NFL Betting Trends Reveal Detroit as the Real Trap Game and Dallas as the Contrarian Play
Thanksgiving has become the NFL's most bet day of the season outside of the Super Bowl, with casual fans flooding sportsbooks between turkey and pie. But the data reveals a stunning truth: the public is consistently betting the wrong side, particularly when it comes to America's traditional Thanksgiving hosts. After analyzing five years of Thanksgiving betting data from 2020-2024, combined with 2025's early lines, one thing is clear—fading the Lions and trusting the Cowboys' holiday magic offers the sharpest betting edge.
The numbers don't lie. While Detroit hosts the early slate every year at Ford Field, their Thanksgiving ATS record tells a cautionary tale that savvy bettors should heed going into 2025.
The Lions' Thanksgiving Curse: A Fool's Gold Favorite
Detroit entered 2024's Thanksgiving matchup against the Bears as a 9.5-point favorite, riding a nine-game winning streak and holding the best record in the NFC. The public hammered the Lions, and why wouldn't they? Dan Campbell's squad was rolling, averaging 29.3 points per game in the regular season. But Thanksgiving has been Detroit's kryptonite.
The Bears covered easily in a 23-20 Lions win, continuing a troubling pattern. From 2020-2024, the Lions went just 2-3 ATS as Thanksgiving home favorites. Even more damning: Detroit's offensive output drops significantly on turkey day. The Lions averaged just 23.3 points per game on Thanksgiving over the past three seasons compared to 29.3 points in regular season games. That's a six-point drop, according to Action Network's betting trends data.
"Favorites have historically dominated on Thanksgiving. Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread," according to Action Network analysts. But here's the catch: the Cowboys are responsible for most of that favorable ATS performance. Remove Dallas from the equation, and the rest of the NFL's Thanksgiving favorites are barely above .500 ATS.
Looking at 2025, Detroit opens as a 2.5-point favorite over Green Bay on November 27. The total sits at 49.5. History suggests fading the public's love affair with the Lions. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love has torched Detroit before, including a 29-22 upset victory on Thanksgiving 2023 when the Packers were 8.5-point underdogs.
| Matchup | Final Score | Spread | ATS Result | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears @ Lions | 20-23 | DET -9.5 | Bears +9.5 ✓ | 47.5 | Under |
| Giants @ Cowboys | 20-27 | DAL -4.5 | Cowboys -4.5 ✓ | 38.5 | Over |
Cowboys: The Thanksgiving Money Machine
While Detroit disappoints, Dallas delivers. The Cowboys went 3-2 ATS on Thanksgiving from 2020-2024, but the real story lies in their performance relative to expectations. Dallas averaged 33.3 points per game on Thanksgiving over the past three seasons compared to just 25.5 points in regular season games. That's nearly an eight-point bump—a massive edge bettors can exploit.
According to Covers.com's NFL Week 13 odds breakdown, the Cowboys opened as 3-point home underdogs against Kansas City for Thanksgiving 2025. This represents a golden opportunity. Dallas thrives in the spotlight at AT&T Stadium on turkey day, and the 51.5 total suggests a shootout. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones embraces the spectacle. "I don't know if there's been a better one," Jones said following Dallas' 45-10 demolition of Washington on Thanksgiving 2023, according to Sports Illustrated.
The 2024 Thanksgiving results proved this point. Dallas covered as 4.5-point favorites against the Giants in a 27-20 win, and the game sailed over the 38.5 total with 47 combined points. Cooper Rush, starting in place of injured Dak Prescott, threw for 195 yards and a touchdown. Rico Dowdle rushed for 112 yards. The Cowboys' offensive efficiency on Thanksgiving is no accident—it's a trend with teeth.
Betting Totals: Follow the Over
Thanksgiving games produce fireworks. From 2020-2024, totals went over in seven of 10 games (70%). Lions games hit the over in three of five contests (60%), while Cowboys games went over in four of five matchups (80%). The 2025 totals of 49.5 (Lions-Packers) and 51.5 (Cowboys-Chiefs) suggest books are adjusting, but history indicates these numbers still offer value to over bettors.
"Lions are 11-2 straight up as favorites on Thanksgiving since 1990," notes betting analysis from Sharp Football Analysis. But what matters more for bettors is the 40% ATS failure rate for Detroit as heavy favorites during the past five years.
| Category | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Favorites ATS | 5-3 | 62.5% |
| Home Teams ATS | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| Totals (Over) | 7-3 | 70.0% |
| Lions ATS (Home) | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| Cowboys ATS (Home) | 3-2 | 60.0% |
Fantasy Implications: Short Rest Hurts Star Players
Fantasy managers should note that Thanksgiving's short week creates unique challenges. In 2024, Jared Goff threw for 221 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears, well below his season average of 277.7 yards per game. Caleb Williams outperformed Goff with 256 passing yards and three touchdowns, but the Bears still lost.
The rushing game suffered more. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 175 yards and 53 receiving yards, but neither found the end zone on the ground. DJ Moore led receivers with 97 yards and a touchdown. The lesson: target pass catchers over running backs in Thanksgiving DFS lineups, and don't overpay for quarterbacks in plus matchups.
Looking ahead to 2025, Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes offer elite upside in favorable game scripts. Both totals project 50-plus points, suggesting offensive fireworks. Wide receivers like Jayden Reed, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Travis Kelce should see heavy target volume.
Quarterback Performance: Cowboys Elevate, Lions Stagnate
| Team | Game Type | Avg Points | Avg Yards | Avg Pass Yards | Avg Rush Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | Thanksgiving | 23.3 | 398.3 | 255.0 | 143.3 |
| Lions | Regular Season | 29.3 | 396.7 | 259.7 | 137.0 |
| Cowboys | Thanksgiving | 33.3 | 392.7 | 262.3 | 130.3 |
| Cowboys | Regular Season | 25.5 | 344.6 | 232.4 | 112.3 |
Dak Prescott has been exceptional on Thanksgiving, averaging 280.7 passing yards and 2.67 touchdowns per game over the past three turkey day appearances. Jared Goff, meanwhile, averages 264.3 yards and two touchdowns—solid but not spectacular. The Cowboys' 7.8-point scoring bump on Thanksgiving versus regular season games represents one of the NFL's most exploitable betting trends.
Market Analysis: Fade the Public, Trust the Data
According to ESPN's betting analysis, public money floods Lions spreads every Thanksgiving, inflating the line. "The Lions have lost seven straight Thanksgiving games outright, but they are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 Thanksgiving games," ESPN noted before the 2024 slate. That ATS record is misleading—it's padded by underdog performances before the Dan Campbell era.
Sharp bettors recognize the Lions' recent dominance hasn't translated to covering inflated spreads on turkey day. Detroit went 0-3 straight up on Thanksgiving under Campbell before finally breaking through in 2024, but they still failed to cover. The pattern is clear: Detroit plays tight, low-scoring games on Thanksgiving regardless of regular season form.
2025 Betting Strategy: Three Actionable Plays
-
Back the Packers +2.5 at Detroit (Early Game): Green Bay has won two straight in this rivalry, including the 2023 Thanksgiving upset. Jordan Love's mobility and arm talent create matchup problems for Detroit's defense. The 49.5 total feels inflated given the Lions' historical Thanksgiving scoring slump. Lean Packers and under.
-
Hammer Cowboys +3 vs. Chiefs (Afternoon Game): This line disrespects Dallas' Thanksgiving dominance. The Cowboys are 3-2 ATS as underdogs on turkey day since 2020, and they elevate offensively at home in primetime slots. Patrick Mahomes on the road is beatable, and the 51.5 total screams shootout. Take Dallas and the over.
-
Target the Over in Both Games: Seven of 10 Thanksgiving games went over from 2020-2024. Both 2025 totals (49.5, 51.5) sit in the sweet spot. Offensive coordinators game-plan for weeks, and Thanksgiving's national audience incentivizes aggressive playcalling. The over is the strongest trend play.
Expert Consensus: Contrarian Value Wins
"Favorites are 36-19 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005. The Cowboys are 6-9 ATS as favorites, the rest of the NFL is 30-10 ATS on Thanksgiving," according to Action Network's 2024 betting primer. This data point is crucial: Dallas struggles as favorites but thrives as underdogs. The 2025 setup—Cowboys catching three points at home—is precisely the spot sharp bettors should attack.
Covers.com's Jason Logan noted, "The Cowboys stormed back to beat the Eagles in Week 12 and opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day." That late-season momentum combined with their historical turkey day performance creates a perfect contrarian storm.
The Bottom Line: Turkey Day's Sharpest Edges
Thanksgiving betting isn't about backing the best teams—it's about identifying market inefficiencies. The public loves favorites, high-scoring offenses, and primetime narratives. That's why Detroit's line gets inflated every year despite consistent underperformance, and why Dallas offering value as underdogs represents a gift.
From 2020-2024, betting favorites ATS on Thanksgiving produced a 62.5% win rate, but that number is skewed by non-traditional hosts. The Lions specifically went 2-3 ATS as home favorites, while totals crushed at 70% to the over. These aren't flukes—they're patterns rooted in game-planning advantages, offensive scheme familiarity, and public betting bias.
For 2025, the recipe is simple: fade the Lions, back the Cowboys, and hammer the over in both games. Jared Goff's conservative approach on short rest limits Detroit's ceiling. Meanwhile, Dallas' offensive explosion on Thanksgiving is as reliable as Jerry Jones showing up in a cowboy hat. The data screams contrarian value.
Thanksgiving is the ultimate public betting day, and that's precisely why it offers the sharpest edges for informed bettors. Don't follow the turkey to slaughter—follow the trends that pay.