NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Why Favorites Dominate and Unders Cash
Week 1 of the NFL season presents a unique betting landscape that savvy bettors have learned to navigate with caution and precision. While the excitement of a new season creates public enthusiasm for flashy plays and high-scoring affairs, the data tells a different story about where the smart money should go.
The Week 1 Reality Check
Historical analysis reveals that Week 1 operates under fundamentally different dynamics than the rest of the regular season. From 2020-2024, Week 1 games averaged just 44.9 total points compared to 45.8 during weeks 2-17, while home field advantage diminished significantly with home teams winning only 50.0% of games versus 53.4% in regular season play.
The most striking trend, however, lies in spread betting performance. Favorites have absolutely dominated Week 1 action, covering at a remarkable 73.8% clip over the past five seasons. This stands in stark contrast to the typical 52-53% rate expected in efficient betting markets.
| Metric | Week 1 | Regular Season | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win Rate | 50.0% | 53.4% | -3.4% |
| Average Total Points | 44.9 | 45.8 | -0.9 |
| Close Games (≤3 pts) | 24.4% | 24.5% | -0.1% |
| Blowouts (≥14 pts) | 29.3% | 34.3% | -5.0% |
Why Favorites Feast in Week 1
The dominance of favorites in Week 1 stems from several key factors that create predictable betting opportunities. Roster uncertainty, limited preseason evaluation, and public overreaction to offseason narratives consistently create inflated lines that favor the superior teams.
"Betting big favorites in Week 1 can be worrisome," according to ESPN's betting analysis, noting that "there have been 48 favorites of at least six points in the past decade of opening weeks." However, the data suggests this conventional wisdom may be outdated.
The numbers paint a clear picture of favorite superiority:
| Year | Underdog Cover Rate | Favorite Cover Rate | Home Cover Rate | Away Cover Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12.5% | 87.5% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 2023 | 25.0% | 75.0% | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 2022 | 12.5% | 87.5% | 43.8% | 56.3% |
| 2021 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% |
| 2020 | 25.0% | 68.8% | 50.0% | 43.8% |
| Average | 23.8% | 73.8% | 56.3% | 41.3% |
The Under's Consistent Edge
While favorites have dominated spreads, the under has been equally profitable in Week 1 totals betting. Over the past five seasons, under bets have cashed at a 57.5% rate, significantly outperforming the 42.5% success rate of over bets.
This trend reflects the reality of early-season football: offensive timing issues, conservative game planning, and defensive preparation advantages create lower-scoring environments than the betting public anticipates. The average Week 1 total has been set at 45.5 points, but games have averaged just 44.9 points.
Sharp Money Insights for 2025
VSiN's early Week 1 sharp report indicates that professional bettors are already targeting specific matchups where public perception diverges from analytical reality. The sharp money typically focuses on three key areas: laying points with superior teams, betting unders in hyped offensive matchups, and finding value in road favorites.
Professional bettor Steve Fezzik emphasizes the importance of "fading public enthusiasm in Week 1," according to VSiN's analysis, noting that "sharp money showed over the summer" on teams with sustainable advantages rather than flashy storylines.
2025 Week 1 Opportunities
Looking at this year's slate, several games fit the historical patterns that have produced profits. The Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns represents a classic Week 1 favorite play, with Cincinnati's established offensive system facing a Browns team with quarterback uncertainty.
Similarly, the Washington Commanders (-6.5) hosting the New York Giants offers another favorite opportunity, as Washington's improved roster faces a Giants team in transition. The total of 45.5 also presents under value given both teams' likely conservative approaches.
The Denver Broncos (-8.5) against Tennessee Titans stands out as a large favorite play that fits the historical trend of big favorites covering in Week 1. Denver's home field advantage and roster superiority should overwhelm a Titans team in rebuilding mode.
Fantasy Football Implications
Week 1's lower-scoring environment and favorite dominance create specific fantasy considerations. Target players on favored teams who are likely to control game flow, while being cautious with players on underdog teams that may face negative game scripts early.
The under trend suggests being conservative with total touchdown projections and focusing on players with secure target shares rather than boom-or-bust options that rely on high-scoring games.
The Contrarian Approach That Works
While the public gravitates toward exciting underdogs and high-scoring narratives, Week 1 rewards the boring, analytical approach. The data overwhelmingly supports backing favorites and unders, strategies that may lack excitement but consistently produce profits.
The key is recognizing that Week 1 operates under different rules than the rest of the season. Teams with established systems, superior talent, and coaching advantages consistently outperform expectations, while the chaos and unpredictability that many bettors expect simply doesn't materialize at the rate anticipated.
As we enter the 2025 season, the smart money continues to follow the same playbook that has worked for five consecutive years: back the favorites, bet the unders, and let the public chase the exciting plays that rarely cash. In a week where everyone expects surprises, the biggest surprise is often how predictable the results actually are.