New Play-Callers, New Profits: How 2025's Coaching Changes Will Impact Week 1 Betting and Fantasy
The most overlooked edge in Week 1 NFL betting isn't injury reports or weather conditions—it's scheme shifts. While casual bettors chase last season's narratives, sharp money targets the systematic changes that new offensive coordinators bring to their systems. Three coaching moves stand out as particularly undervalued by sportsbooks: Kellen Moore's arrival in New Orleans, Ben Johnson's transition to Chicago, and Brian Schottenheimer's promotion in Dallas.
These aren't just coaching changes—they're complete philosophical overhauls that will fundamentally alter how these offenses operate. The betting market, historically slow to adjust to schematic evolution, presents significant value opportunities for those who understand the tendencies these coordinators bring.
Game Performances & Recent Stats
The baseline numbers tell a stark story about the offensive struggles these new coordinators inherit. Chicago managed just 18.2 points per game in 2024, ranking among the NFL's worst offenses with 284 total yards per contest. Dallas averaged 20.6 points despite having elite skill position talent, while New Orleans posted 19.9 points per game in a season that saw multiple quarterback changes.
2024 Offensive Efficiency Comparison
| Team | Avg Points | Total Yards | Pass Yards | Rush Yards | Plays/Game | Yards/Play | Pass % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 18.2 | 284 | 182 | 102 | 63 | 4.5 | 64.1% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20.6 | 327 | 227 | 100 | 65 | 5.0 | 69.4% |
| New Orleans Saints | 19.9 | 320 | 205 | 115 | 61 | 5.2 | 64.1% |
The quarterback situations provide additional context for the dramatic changes ahead. Caleb Williams completed 62.2% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt in his rookie season, numbers that should improve significantly under Johnson's tutelage. Dak Prescott's 6.9 yards per attempt in limited action suggests untapped potential under Schottenheimer's QB-friendly system. Derek Carr's efficient 7.7 yards per attempt indicates Moore has a reliable signal-caller to execute his aggressive concepts.
Starting QB Profiles Under New Coordinators
| Team | QB | Games | Pass Att | Comp % | Yards/Att | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | Caleb Williams | 17 | 33.1 | 62.2% | 6.3 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 29 |
| Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 8 | 35.8 | 64.5% | 6.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 7 |
| Saints | Derek Carr | 10 | 27.9 | 67.7% | 7.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 7 |
Betting Angles & Market Analysis
The most profitable betting angles emerge from understanding each coordinator's signature concepts. Moore's early-down aggression in Dallas led to increased explosive play rates and red-zone creativity. His Saints offense should see a significant uptick in play-action usage and intermediate passing concepts that exploit defensive leverage.
Johnson's Lions offense ranked first in scoring (33.1 PPG) while featuring extensive pre-snap motion and yards-after-catch manufacturing. His Bears system will emphasize getting playmakers in space through creative route combinations and misdirection concepts. The motion rate alone should increase dramatically from Chicago's conservative 2024 approach.
Schottenheimer brings quarterback-friendly progressions and rhythm-based concepts that should unlock Dallas's offensive potential. His system emphasizes timing routes and intermediate passing concepts that play to Prescott's strengths while maximizing target distribution among skill position players.
"Johnson has plenty of players looking for touches on offense, and that's a good problem to have for the first-year coach," according to ESPN's analysis. The depth of Chicago's receiving corps creates multiple betting opportunities as target shares redistribute under the new system.
Fantasy Draft Implications
The fantasy implications are profound, particularly for players whose usage patterns will change dramatically. DJ Moore becomes a priority target in Chicago, as Johnson's system should feature him in motion concepts and manufactured touches that weren't available in the previous offense. Cole Kmet emerges as a sleeper tight end candidate, given Johnson's history of utilizing the position in seam routes and red-zone packages.
High-Volume Target Recipients (4+ targets/game)
| Team | Player | Pos | Games | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | Rec TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | DJ Moore | WR | 17 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 57 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 4 |
| Bears | Keenan Allen | WR | 15 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 50 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bears | Cole Kmet | TE | 9 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 48 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Cowboys | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 15 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 80 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 5 |
| Cowboys | Jake Ferguson | TE | 13 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 37 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Saints | Alvin Kamara | RB | 14 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 39 | 0.1 | 16.3 | 68 |
CeeDee Lamb's target share could actually increase under Schottenheimer's system, as the coordinator's slot concepts should create additional opportunities in high-percentage areas. Jake Ferguson becomes a viable fantasy option given the coordinator's history of featuring tight ends in intermediate routes.
Alvin Kamara represents the most intriguing fantasy pivot, as Moore's system should maximize his versatility through creative alignments and route concepts that weren't utilized in previous seasons.
Expert Analysis & Quotes
The coaching carousel created significant value opportunities that sharp bettors are already identifying. "Since Ben Johnson became an OC, he has produced 12% of FLEX-eligible league winners by himself," according to Fantasy Points analysis. This track record suggests his Bears players are undervalued in current fantasy markets.
Industry experts recognize the systematic advantages these coordinators bring. "Johnson has had a meteoric rise, going from the Lions' tight end coach in 2021 to head coach of the Chicago Bears," noted The Athletic's defensive coordinator survey, which ranked him as the third-best offensive play-caller in the NFL.
The market inefficiencies are particularly pronounced in Week 1, when sportsbooks rely heavily on previous season data rather than projecting schematic changes. "Moore has built quarterback-friendly systems for playmakers with varied skill sets in three stops as an offensive coordinator," according to NFL.com's coaching analysis.
Your Take/Prediction
The most profitable approach targets pace and usage rate props that haven't adjusted to these coordinators' tendencies. Chicago's plays per game should increase from 63 to 68-70 under Johnson's up-tempo concepts. New Orleans should see similar pace increases as Moore implements early-down aggression that creates more possessions.
Target reception overs for players entering expanded roles: DJ Moore's reception total should exceed market expectations given Johnson's motion concepts. Cole Kmet becomes a priority target for anytime touchdown props, as Johnson's red-zone creativity should create scoring opportunities that weren't available previously.
Conversely, rushing attempt props may be overvalued for running backs in committee situations. D'Andre Swift's carries could decrease as Johnson emphasizes passing concepts and screen games that utilize running backs as receivers rather than traditional rushers.
Week 1 Props Menu
Reception Overs: DJ Moore (Bears) - Johnson's motion concepts should create additional target opportunities beyond his 8.2 per game average. Cole Kmet represents significant value given his expanded role in seam routes and red-zone packages.
Rushing Unders: Target running backs in systems transitioning to pass-heavy concepts. Swift's rushing attempts may decline as Johnson emphasizes receiving work and screen concepts.
Anytime Touchdowns: Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) emerges as a sleeper candidate given Schottenheimer's intermediate route concepts. Alvin Kamara's touchdown odds may be undervalued given Moore's creative red-zone packages and versatile alignments.
The key insight remains consistent: scheme shifts represent the most underpriced edge in Week 1 betting. While sportsbooks adjust slowly to philosophical changes, sharp bettors who understand these coordinators' tendencies can capitalize on systematic advantages that create sustained value throughout the opening weeks of the season.
These coaching changes aren't just personnel moves—they're complete offensive overhauls that will reshape how these teams approach every down. The betting market's failure to fully price in these schematic shifts creates the season's most profitable opportunities for those willing to dig deeper than surface-level statistics.