MVP Futures Before Kickoff: Lamar's Lead, the Case for Burrow, and Three Longshots With Real Paths
The NFL MVP market has crystallized around familiar names, but this is the final window to capitalize on mispriced futures before Week 1 reshapes the entire landscape. With Lamar Jackson leading at +460 odds, followed by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow at +600, and Patrick Mahomes at +700, the betting public has settled into predictable patterns. However, MVP voting psychology and team context suggest several compelling angles that could deliver significant returns.
The Lamar Formula: Efficiency Meets Team Success
Jackson enters 2025 as the rightful favorite, and the numbers from 2024 support his candidacy. His 296.6 total yards per game combined with the Ravens' 12-5 record creates the perfect MVP storm: elite individual production paired with team success. Jackson's unique dual-threat ability generated 4,601 passing yards and 1,035 rushing yards, making him virtually matchup-proof.
"Lamar's biggest advantage is that he impacts the game in ways that traditional pocket passers simply cannot," according to Sharp Football Analysis. "His rushing production creates a statistical floor that other candidates need explosive passing numbers to match."
The Ravens' offensive system maximizes Jackson's skillset while maintaining championship-level expectations. Baltimore averaged 30.5 points per game in 2024, and their 424.9 total yards per game ranked among the league's elite. Jackson's 75.8 passer rating, while not spectacular, reflects his dual-threat value that traditional metrics struggle to capture.
The Pro-Burrow Argument: Pure Passing Excellence
Joe Burrow presents the strongest case for betting market inefficiency. Despite missing two games in 2024, Burrow led all quarterbacks with 301.1 total yards per game and threw for a league-high 4,918 passing yards. His 43 passing touchdowns in just 17 games projects to a 48-touchdown pace over a full season.
The Bengals' offensive ceiling remains the highest in the NFL when healthy. Cincinnati's high-powered passing attack generated explosive plays consistently, with Burrow's arm talent creating scoring opportunities that other quarterbacks simply cannot replicate. If the Bengals start hot and Burrow stays upright, his statistical dominance could overwhelm voters who prioritize pure passing production.
"Burrow's per-game numbers were actually superior to Jackson's in 2024," notes ESPN's betting analysis. "The question isn't his talent level – it's whether Cincinnati can stay healthy and competitive in a loaded AFC."
Allen's Statistical Monster Status
Josh Allen remains the most complete quarterback in the MVP race, combining elite arm talent with legitimate rushing ability. His 46 total touchdowns (32 passing, 14 rushing) in 2024 showcased the balanced attack that makes Buffalo consistently dangerous. Allen's rushing touchdowns serve as the ultimate tiebreaker in close MVP races, providing scoring plays that pure pocket passers cannot match.
The Bills' 13-4 record and 30.9 points per game demonstrate Allen's impact on winning, while his 263.3 total yards per game maintains elite production levels. Allen's playoff pedigree and clutch-time performance create additional voter appeal that statistical analysis alone cannot capture.
| Top MVP Candidates - 2024 Season Performance |
|---|
| Player |
| Joe Burrow |
| Lamar Jackson |
| Josh Allen |
| Patrick Mahomes |
Three Longshots With Legitimate Paths
Justin Herbert (+2000): The Harbaugh Effect
Herbert enters 2025 with renewed optimism under Jim Harbaugh's proven system. The Chargers' 11-6 record in 2024 demonstrated their playoff potential, while Herbert's 245.4 yards per game provides a solid foundation for improvement. Harbaugh's track record of maximizing quarterback talent creates genuine upside for Herbert's MVP candidacy.
"Jim Harbaugh's biggest weakness is that offensive teammates must get to his level," Harbaugh said about Herbert, according to NFL.com. This suggests Herbert's ceiling remains untapped with proper supporting cast development.
The Chargers' defensive improvements could create more scoring opportunities and favorable game scripts for Herbert. If Los Angeles emerges as an AFC contender while Herbert posts career numbers, his MVP narrative gains significant momentum.
Jalen Hurts (+1800): Bully Ball Renaissance
Hurts' 2024 campaign featured 23 passing touchdowns and 19 rushing touchdowns, demonstrating the dual-threat production that voters love. The Eagles' 14-3 record and 27.2 points per game created the team success foundation necessary for MVP consideration. Philadelphia's commitment to bully-ball offense maximizes Hurts' rushing ability while creating high-percentage passing opportunities.
The Eagles' offensive line and running game create ideal conditions for Hurts to dominate in short-yardage and red-zone situations. His rushing touchdown production provides a statistical edge that traditional pocket passers cannot match, particularly in close MVP races where unique production becomes the deciding factor.
Trevor Lawrence (+5000): Scheme-Bounce Candidate
Lawrence represents the ultimate boom-or-bust MVP longshot with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen implementing a quarterback-friendly system. The Jaguars' young talent core and improved offensive line create conditions for Lawrence to finally realize his draft-day potential.
"Trevor Lawrence is hungry and primed for his best season in the NFL," according to Jaguars.com analysis. Jacksonville's commitment to building around Lawrence's skillset could produce the breakout season that transforms him from disappointment to MVP candidate.
Portfolio Strategy and Early-Season Hedging
The optimal MVP betting approach involves diversification across risk levels: one favorite (Lamar Jackson at +460), one mid-tier candidate (Joe Burrow at +600), and one longshot (Justin Herbert at +2000). This strategy captures upside while maintaining reasonable downside protection.
Key early-season games that could reshape MVP narratives include Ravens-Chiefs in Week 1, Bengals-Bills in Week 4, and Chargers-Eagles in Week 6. Strong performances in these nationally televised matchups create immediate MVP buzz that shifts betting markets significantly.
If any longshot ticket gains equity by October, hedging strategies become viable. A Herbert ticket purchased at +2000 could be hedged at +800 after a strong start, guaranteeing profit regardless of final outcome. This approach maximizes return on investment while minimizing risk exposure.
The Final Word
MVP futures represent the last opportunity to capitalize on market inefficiencies before game action provides clarity. Jackson's dual-threat dominance makes him the deserving favorite, but Burrow's pure passing excellence and potential Bengals resurgence create compelling value at +600. Among longshots, Herbert's situation under Harbaugh offers the most realistic path to contention.
The MVP race will be decided by October, making early positioning crucial for maximizing returns. Smart money targets multiple candidates across different price points, creating portfolio diversification that captures upside while managing downside risk. This is the week to act before Week 1 reshapes everything.