The Mahomes Mirage: Why Betting Against the Chiefs at 1PM EST Could Be Your Most Profitable Move

Patrick Mahomes has turned early afternoon games into a legitimate concern for Kansas City, and the betting market hasn't caught up yet.

Through 11 weeks of the 2025 season, Kansas City sits at a disappointing 5-5 record, and a troubling pattern has emerged around game times. While the NFL world obsesses over Mahomes' prime-time heroics, savvy bettors are starting to notice something different happening when the ball kicks off at 1PM EST. The data tells a story the oddsmakers don't want you to see.

The 1PM Reality Check: Numbers Don't Lie

In Week 7 of the 2025 season, Mahomes faced the Las Vegas Raiders at 1PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium. He put up solid numbers: 26-of-35 passing (74.3% completion rate), 286 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 126.6 passer rating. The Chiefs dominated 31-0.

But here's the problem: that's the ONLY 1PM EST game Mahomes has played this season.

Compare that single data point to his performance in other time slots during 2025:

4PM EST Games (4 games):

• Completion %: 63.8%
• Passing Yards/Game: 245.8
• Passing TDs/Game: 1.5
• INTs/Game: 1.0
• Passer Rating: 79.8
• DK Fantasy Points/Game: 16.1

Primetime Games (5 games):

• Completion %: 66.1%
• Passing Yards/Game: 271.2
• Passing TDs/Game: 2.2
• INTs/Game: 0.8
• Passer Rating: 95.6
• DK Fantasy Points/Game: 24.7

The Chiefs are 2-2 in 4PM games and a respectable 3-2 in primetime. But with only one 1PM game completed this season, the real story lies in recent history.

Historical Trends: The 1PM Struggle Is Real

According to The Kansas City Star, Mahomes acknowledged struggles in noon kickoffs entering the 2024 season, telling reporters he wanted Kansas City "to be better" in those time slots.

The numbers from 2023-2024 paint a concerning picture for Chiefs backers:

Mahomes in 1PM EST Games (2023-2024 Combined, 8 games):

• Completion %: 68.4%
• Passing Yards/Game: 264.9
• Passing TDs/Game: 1.9
• INTs/Game: 0.5
• Passer Rating: 65.1
• DK Fantasy Points/Game: 21.0

Breaking it down further reveals the real problem:

1PM HOME Games: 67.9% completion, 253.7 pass yards, 1.0 TD, 19.3 fantasy points 1PM AWAY Games: 68.8% completion, 271.6 pass yards, 2.4 TDs, 22.2 fantasy points

While the away numbers look slightly better, the concerning trend is the touchdown production at home during early games. In three 1PM EST home games from 2023-2024, Mahomes averaged just one passing touchdown—well below his season averages.

Why Early Games Hurt Mahomes

The Athletic's reporting through Week 11 suggests this isn't just statistical noise. Chiefs are at a pivotal moment in the Mahomes era, with the dynasty showing cracks. The team went from a 17-game winning streak to 0-5 in close games through recent weeks.

Several factors contribute to the early-game struggles:

Offensive Rhythm: Mahomes thrives on pre-snap adjustments and reading defenses. Early kickoffs mean less time for the offense to sync up, particularly on the road where travel and timezone adjustments can disrupt routines.

Temperature & Weather: Many 1PM EST games in December and January involve cold weather conditions. While Mahomes can handle it, his wide receiver corps—particularly with Rashee Rice's injury issues—have struggled to create separation in these conditions.

Opponent Quality: Looking at the 2025 schedule, the Raiders game (31-0 win) was Kansas City's only 1PM contest—against one of the league's worst teams. The Chiefs conveniently avoided scheduling 1PM road games against tough divisional opponents.

Betting Implications: Where the Edge Lives

Here's where it gets interesting for bettors. The FanDuel props for Mahomes' Week 7 Raiders game (1PM EST) set his passing yards line at 253.5. He went over at 286 yards, but that was against a Raiders defense ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA.

For the 2025 season, Mahomes' average passing yards prop is 257.4, which he's exceeded by just 3.6 yards per game. In 1PM games historically, his 264.9 average barely clears most lines—and that's skewed by a few dominant performances.

The Spread Story:

The Chiefs were -13.5 favorites in their lone 1PM game (Week 7 vs. Raiders) and covered easily. But that massive spread reflected opponent quality, not Mahomes' proven excellence in the time slot.

Looking at Chiefs team performance in 1PM games:

• Week 7 (2025): 31 points, 434 total yards, 0 turnovers, 30 first downs
• Historical 1PM games show more inconsistency, particularly on the road

Player Props to Target:

1. Passing TDs UNDER: At 1PM home games (2023-2024), Mahomes averaged 1.0 TD passes. Books consistently set his line at 1.5 or higher. That's actionable value.

2. Completion % Trends: While his overall completion rate holds steady around 68%, the touchdown efficiency drops significantly.

3. Rushing Props: In 1PM games (2023-2024), Mahomes averaged 25.1 rushing yards—slightly higher than his season norm. His Week 7 performance (28 rush yards) fits that profile.

The Road Ahead

The Chiefs' remaining 2025 schedule includes limited 1PM EST exposure, which may actually help their playoff push. But bettors should watch for:

• Cold weather 1PM games: These present the highest risk for Mahomes underperformance
• Road 1PM games in hostile environments: Chiefs are vulnerable here
• Divisional matchups at noon: Denver and LA Chargers games historically create chaos

The Verdict

Patrick Mahomes remains one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks, but he's not immune to situational performance variance. The 1PM EST time slot represents a genuine statistical weakness—one that betting markets haven't fully priced in.

When the Chiefs play at 1PM EST, particularly on the road or in cold weather, consider:

• Passing TD props UNDER
• Chiefs team total UNDER (except against bottom-tier defenses)
• Opponent spreads (if getting 7+ points)

The Mahomes mystique is real, but so is the data. At 1PM EST, the two-time MVP is mortal. And in sports betting, mortality is profitable.

As Athlon Sports reports, Mahomes is "standing firm amid backlash" during this difficult 5-5 stretch through Week 11. But standing firm doesn't change the numbers. The Chiefs are no longer the juggernaut they once were, and early kickoffs amplify every flaw.

Bottom Line: When you see Mahomes and the Chiefs scheduled for 1PM EST—especially on the road—the smart money fades the hype. The rest of the NFL has caught up, and the clock is ticking on Kansas City's dynasty. Early afternoon games are where it shows most.

Note: 1PM EST totals include 8 games from 2023-2024 plus 1 game from 2025

The edge exists. The question is whether you're sharp enough to exploit it.