Joe Burrow's Risky Return: Why Betting Unders on His Week 13 Props Is Smart

Joe Burrow's High-Risk Return: Why the Bengals QB's Week 13 Props Are Dangerously Inflated

Joe Burrow is back, but the Thanksgiving stage against the Baltimore Ravens might be the worst possible scenario for his return. After missing nine games with a Grade 3 turf toe injury that required surgery, the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback is expected to start Thursday night despite a disastrous 3-8 season record and without his top receiving weapon. The data from Parlay Savant reveals a concerning truth: Burrow's betting props appear significantly inflated given the circumstances surrounding his return.

"I'm not going to sit if healthy," Burrow told reporters this week, according to NFL.com. But healthy enough to play and healthy enough to hit inflated passing props against a resurgent Ravens defense are two entirely different questions.

The Troubling Pre-Injury Numbers

Burrow's 2025 season performance before the injury should raise immediate red flags for bettors banking on a triumphant return. In his only two games this season, the former Heisman Trophy winner posted career-worst efficiency numbers that suggest he was already struggling.

Burrow averaged just 94.5 passing yards per game on a meager 57.4% completion rate with a passer rating of 57.5 before getting hurt. For context, his FanDuel passing yards prop for Week 13 is set at 251.5.

Career Pattern of Early-Season Rust

The historical data reveals another critical factor: Joe Burrow consistently struggles in his first games of the season. Across his six-year career, his Week 1 performances have been particularly inconsistent:

Career Week 1 Averages:

• Passing Yards: 191.8
• Touchdowns: 0.8
• Interceptions: 1.0
• Passer Rating: 53.8

In four of his six career Week 1 starts, Burrow has posted a QBR below 62. The pattern is unmistakable: he starts slow, often needing multiple games to find his rhythm. Now factor in that this isn't just his first game of the season, it's his first game after a three-month absence following significant surgery.

Baltimore's Defensive Resurgence

The Ravens defense has transformed into a takeaway machine over the past six games, posting numbers that should terrify anyone considering Burrow's overs:

Baltimore is allowing just 205.3 passing yards per game over their last six contests while averaging 2.2 sacks and one interception per game. They've held quarterbacks to an average passer rating of 66.2 during this stretch, with Shedeur Sanders posting just 47 yards and J.J. McCarthy throwing two picks in recent matchups.

According to TeamRankings.com, the Ravens rank 24th in opponent passing yards per game at 231.6 for the season, but their recent six-game average of 205.3 shows they're trending significantly better.

The Tee Higgins Factor

Perhaps the most critical piece of information: Tee Higgins will not play Thursday night. Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Monday that Higgins remains in concussion protocol after being carted off against New England, according to Yahoo Sports.

While Burrow only played two games with Higgins this season, the numbers with his top target were still underwhelming. With Ja'Marr Chase serving a suspension, Burrow will return to a receiving corps that looks dramatically different from the unit that helped him earn elite status in previous seasons. He'll be relying on depth receivers while facing one of the NFL's hottest defenses.

The Bengals Without Burrow

The Bengals' performance in Burrow's absence tells a fascinating story. Backup Joe Flacco has actually kept the offense competitive, averaging 272.4 passing yards and 29 points per game across five starts. The team went 2-3 with Flacco, including explosive performances of 42 and 38 points.

"Flacco has kept us competitive," one analyst noted in a CBS Sports preview. "The question is whether Burrow with rust is better than Flacco in rhythm."

Betting Analysis: The Props Are a Trap

FanDuel has set Burrow's Week 13 props as follows:

These lines appear to be set for the Joe Burrow of 2024, not the rusty version returning from surgery who averaged 94.5 yards in his only 2025 action. The 251.5 passing yards line is particularly egregious given:

1. He averaged 94.5 yards before the injury
2. His career Week 1 average is 191.8 yards
3. Ravens are allowing 205.3 passing yards over their last six games
4. Tee Higgins is out
5. He hasn't played in three months

According to betting analysis from Covers.com, "The return of Burrow is a wild card, but the market may be overvaluing his immediate impact."

The Sharp Play

The data points overwhelmingly toward one direction: take the unders on Burrow's props. Specifically:

Best Bets:

1. Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-114) - This is the most obvious value play. Burrow would need to nearly triple his 2025 average and exceed his career Week 1 average against a defense that's held opponents to 205.3 yards over their last six.

2. Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-106) - Burrow has thrown zero TDs in three of six career Week 1 games. Factor in rust and a depleted receiving corps, and 0-1 TDs seems far more likely than 2+.

3. Under 23.5 Completions (+102) - Getting plus money on an under when Burrow averaged just 10.5 completions before injury is excellent value, even if volume increases.

4. Over 0.5 Interceptions (-114) - The Ravens have forced at least one pick in five of their last six games. Burrow's career Week 1 average is one interception, and rust combined with a ball-hawking secondary makes this a live play.

Fantasy Football Implications

Fantasy managers who've held Burrow through his IR stint should temper expectations for Week 13. In season-long leagues, he's a risky QB2 play at best. The combination of limited 2025 sample size, injury recovery, hostile environment, and defensive matchup creates too much uncertainty for championship-caliber lineups.

Daily Fantasy Sports players should fade Burrow entirely. His salary will be inflated based on name value, and the projected ownership will be inflated by casual players excited about his return. Contrarian plays on backup options with better matchups offer superior leverage.

The Bigger Picture

The Bengals sit at 3-8, essentially eliminated from playoff contention. While Burrow's competitive nature won't allow him to sit out, the organization would be better served limiting his exposure and protecting their franchise quarterback. As USA Today columnist Nate Davis wrote, "Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is poised to return. The flawed Bengals should shut him down."

Thursday night's primetime stage on Thanksgiving will generate massive betting interest on Burrow's return. But the cold, hard data retrieved using Parlay Savant tells a clear story: this is a return game against a hot defense, without his top weapon, after three months away, for a quarterback who was already struggling in his limited 2025 action.

The sharp money should be hammering Burrow's unders. His props are inflated by reputation and recency bias from previous elite seasons, not by the reality of his current situation. When a player averaging 94.5 passing yards has a line set at 251.5, the market is begging you to take the under.

Final Verdict

Joe Burrow's Week 13 return is a perfect storm of negative factors for bettors considering his overs. The Ravens defense is peaking at the right time, Burrow showed troubling signs before injury, his career-long pattern of early-season struggles persists, and Tee Higgins' absence removes a critical safety valve.

The betting recommendation is clear: fade Joe Burrow's props on Thanksgiving night. The 251.5 passing yards line, in particular, offers exceptional value on the under. This is a return game with rust written all over it, and the props haven't properly adjusted for the reality of the situation.

Sometimes the data tells you exactly what you need to know. This is one of those times.