The Chiefs Dynasty is Crumbling: Why Kansas City at -122 to Make the Playoffs is the Trap Bet of 2025

The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-6 and sitting in 9th place in the AFC playoff race. Read that sentence again. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the back-to-back Super Bowl champions are on the outside looking in after dropping three of their last four games, including Thursday's gut-wrenching 31-28 Thanksgiving loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Yet sportsbooks still have Kansas City at -122 odds to make the postseason, an implied probability of 55%. According to data retrieved using the AI research tool Parlay Savant, this number is wildly overinflated by dynasty nostalgia, and the cold math tells a far grimmer story.

"Kansas City, the dynasty part is over," Colin Cowherd declared weeks ago, and the Thanksgiving collapse only validated his prophetic words. The Chiefs are now facing a mathematical nightmare: with just four games remaining and five AFC teams ahead of them, even a strong finish might not be enough. The betting market is pricing in the Mahomes mystique, but smart money should be fading this inflated line. Here's why.

The Brutal Reality: Chiefs Face a Crowded, Unforgiving AFC

According to the latest playoff standings reported by NBC Sports, Kansas City sits in 9th place, two full games behind the 7th and final playoff spot. The current AFC top 10:

To reach the postseason, Kansas City must leapfrog multiple teams while simultaneously winning enough games themselves. This is unprecedented territory for the Mahomes era.

Recent Collapse: The Numbers Don't Lie

Over the last four games (Weeks 9-13), the Chiefs have looked nothing like the dominant force we're accustomed to seeing. Parlay Savant database analysis reveals troubling trends:

Over this four-game stretch, Kansas City is averaging just 22.8 points per game, down from their season average of 25.9 PPG. They've compiled a dismal 1-3 record with a combined point differential of -10. Even in their overtime victory against Indianapolis, they needed 494 total yards and surrendered two turnovers just to escape with a win.

"The Thanksgiving defeat for Kansas City drops their playoff chances from 63.8% to 46%, according to the SportsLine model," reported CBS Sports. Other projections are even more pessimistic. According to the NFL's Ali Bhanpuri, "the Chiefs' loss to the Cowboys means they now have a 35 percent chance of reaching the postseason."

The Gauntlet: Analyzing Kansas City's Remaining Schedule

The Chiefs have four games left, and the path is far from easy:

Combined opponent record: 21-23 (.477 win percentage)

The most likely outcome? The Chiefs go 2-2 over this stretch, finishing 8-8. Based on historical AFC playoff data from 2020-2024 retrieved from Parlay Savant, here's what different final records mean:

Historical AFC Playoff Probability by Record (2020-2024):

• 11 wins: 100% made playoffs (10 of 10 teams)
• 10 wins: 90.9% made playoffs (10 of 11 teams)
• 9 wins: 30.0% made playoffs (3 of 10 teams)
• 8 wins: 0% made playoffs (0 of 9 teams)

This data is brutal for Chiefs fans. Even if Kansas City goes 3-1 down the stretch to finish 9-7, they'd have only a 30% chance of making the postseason based on historical precedent. And remember, they're currently 9th in the standings, not 7th. They don't control their own destiny.

Calculating the True Playoff Probability

Using game-by-game win probabilities and aggregating across all 16 possible outcomes for the final four games, the Chiefs' true playoff probability sits around 38-42%, factoring in both their likelihood of hitting certain records and the historical playoff percentages for those records.

Here's the breakdown of their most likely finish scenarios:

• 10-6 finish (go 4-0): Only 4.9% chance of happening × 91% playoff probability = 4.5% contribution to overall playoff chances

• 9-7 finish (go 3-1): 24.7% chance of happening × 30% base playoff probability (but higher if they win the right games and get help) = 7-12% contribution depending on which teams they beat

• 8-8 finish (go 2-2): 37.2% chance of happening × virtually 0% playoff probability = minimal contribution

• 7-9 or worse: 33.2% combined chance × 0% playoff probability = no contribution

When you factor in tiebreaker scenarios, strength of victory, and the specific opponents they'd need to beat (Houston and LA Chargers are direct Wild Card competitors), the Chiefs' realistic playoff probability lands in the 38-42% range. Some models are even more pessimistic, with the SportsLine model at 46% and others as low as 35%.

The market has them at 55%. The math says 38-42%. That's a 13-17 point edge for bettors willing to fade the Chiefs.

Why is the Market So Wrong?

Simple: brand name inflation. As BetKansas noted, "Based on -220 odds at DraftKings, the Chiefs have a 68.8% chance of making the playoffs," which was stated before the Thanksgiving loss. The public still sees "Mahomes" and "Reid" and instinctively bets yes. But this isn't the same Chiefs team.

Consider the context:

• The Chiefs went 15-2 in 2024, 11-6 in 2023, 14-3 in 2022, 12-5 in 2021, and 14-2 in 2020
• They've made the playoffs every season since Mahomes became the starter
• They're dealing with significant injuries, including Pro Bowl RG Trey Smith battling ankle sprains
• Their offensive line is decimated, contributing to the recent offensive struggles

"Another reason Cowherd thinks this year has gone poorly for Mahomes and the Chiefs is that the AFC West is finally competitive for the first time," reported Arrowhead Addict. And the numbers bear this out:

AFC West Standings:

The Broncos have already beaten Kansas City once this season (22-19 in Week 11) and hold a commanding two-game division lead. The Chiefs face Denver again in Week 17, but even a win there might be too little, too late. They're not winning this division, which means they're purely Wild Card hunting in a brutally crowded conference.

The Betting Verdict: Fade the Dynasty

At -122 (55% implied probability), betting on the Chiefs to make the playoffs is a trap. The true probability sits closer to 40%, making the fair odds approximately +150 (40% implied). That's a massive 15-point differential.

Recommendation: Bet Chiefs NO at +102 (or better if available)

The value is clear: you're getting paid even money on something that should be priced much higher in your favor. This is the rare opportunity to bet against Patrick Mahomes when the market hasn't caught up to the reality.

What would need to happen for the Chiefs to make it? They'd need to go 3-1 minimum (probably requiring wins over Houston, the Chargers at home, and Tennessee) while hoping multiple teams ahead of them stumble. Even then, tiebreakers might work against them. They already lost to Denver and Buffalo, two key AFC competitors.

"It's over for the 2025 Chiefs: Dynasty or not, the Chiefs are facing a math problem and the odds aren't in their favor," wrote USA Today. "They were already on shaky ground, and now they're outside the playoff picture looking in."

The Bottom Line

This isn't about disrespecting Mahomes or dismissing what Kansas City has accomplished. It's about recognizing that even dynasties face mathematical realities. At 6-6 with four games left and five teams ahead of them in the conference, the Chiefs are fighting uphill both ways. The market at -122 is pricing in past glory, not present circumstances.

The data from Parlay Savant tells us everything we need to know: 9-win teams make the AFC playoffs only 30% of the time in the seven-team era, and 8-win teams never make it. Kansas City's expected win total over their final four games is barely above 2, putting them on track for 8-8 or 9-7 at best.

Smart bettors bet the numbers, not the names. And right now, the numbers say fade the Chiefs. The dynasty isn't dead, but it's on life support, and the sportsbooks haven't adjusted the odds accordingly. Take advantage while you can.