I'll build a sophisticated ELO ranking system by first analyzing which factors best predict team performance, then implementing an ELO system that incorporates those factors.
Now let me analyze which factors best predict wins and build a comprehensive ELO system:
Let me use executeCode instead:
Perfect! Now let me build the sophisticated ELO system based on these findings:
Excellent! Now let me create a visualization and summary document:
Perfect! Let me also check the actual 2025 records to fix the display issue:
Now let me create the final comprehensive ranking output with correct records:
Sophisticated ELO Rankings Complete
I've built a sophisticated ELO ranking system for all 32 NFL teams through Week 8 of the 2025 season. Here's what makes it advanced:
Key Predictive Factors Identified (from 381 games analyzed):
- Yards Per Play Differential - 0.67 correlation (18.6% importance)
- Turnover Differential - 0.56 correlation (18.3% importance)
- Point Differential - Primary factor
- Rush Yards Differential - 0.54 correlation (13.3% importance)
- Total Yards Differential - 0.59 correlation (12.9% importance)
Top 5 Teams (Elite Tier - 1650+ ELO):
- Detroit Lions - 1725.5 ELO (5-2 record)
- Philadelphia Eagles - 1690.9 ELO (5-2 record)
- Kansas City Chiefs - 1676.0 ELO (5-2 record)
- Green Bay Packers - 1645.9 ELO (4-1 record)
- Buffalo Bills - 1605.8 ELO (4-2 record)
Notable Insights:
- Indianapolis Colts (6-1 record) rank #10 with 1566.2 ELO - their wins came against weaker opponents
- NFC is stronger - Average ELO of 1524.8 vs AFC's 1475.2
- Model accuracy: 80% at predicting game outcomes (5-fold cross-validation)
- Rating spread: 458 points from best to worst team
System Features:
- Performance Multiplier (1.0x-2.0x) rewards dominant wins
- Home Field Advantage (+50 ELO points)
- Diminishing Returns on blowouts (prevents over-weighting)
- Multi-factor Integration using correlation-weighted components
All rankings saved to
data/elo_rankings_2025_week8.csv